World Cup Countdown: #3
Pick #3 is in the bag, and sets up the dream South American final that many will have hoped for.
If you’re just tuning in, here’s a recap of the rules.
-Each day I will select a team that I believe will be ELIMINATED from the tournament. During the first 16 days (#32-#17), I will select a team that will be eliminated in the Group stage (two teams are eliminated from each Group). For numbers 16-9, I’ll select the eight teams that will fall short at the Round of 16. Days 8-5 will feature the fallen quarter-finalists. And so on and so forth.
-I want you to have your say! If you disagree with my premonition, leave a comment: “Wrong”, “Erroneous”, or something to that effect. If I am proven wrong and you called it, I’ll buy you a pint of beer. Either in person, or I’ll send you the money via bank transfer. The link to ‘leave a comment’ is at the top of each article, on the left-hand side of each page.
– Each reader can only vote once per round (once in the Groups, once in the Round of 16, and so on), and it’s first come first served.
-If I’m very wrong (and you’re very right), I’ll double the reward. That is, if I pick a team to be eliminated in the Group stage and they reach the Quarter-final (advancing at the Round of 16), then I’ll turn 1 beer into 2. If they reach the Semi-finals then it becomes 4. If I’m wrong with all of my picks across the tournament, I’ll stand to lose 80 beers! You stand to lose nothing.
– I won’t make it easy by picking the obvious elimination candidates from each round first. You’ll have to check in and see what’s available, and anticipate higher demand for certain teams. As soon as the next prediction comes in, the previous day’s selection is closed for voting.
Without further ado, here’s my pick at #3:
Spain
Population: 47.3 million
Footballing nickname: La Furia Roja, or the Red Fury. A generally docile bunch, Spain are if anything experts at inciting the fury of their opponents with their mesmerizing passing game and proclivity to go to ground at the slightest contact.
Previous World Cup appearances: 13
Furthest progress at a World Cup: Champions in 2010
Current FIFA World Ranking: #1
Bookmakers’ chances of progressing to the Final: *29%
Why they’ll fail to progress: Spain are experts at imposing their possession game onto opponents, starving them of the ball and penning them deep in their defensive third. However, they are not always terribly efficient at converting their possession into goals, which is sometimes evident even against weaker teams than they’ll face at the business end of the World Cup. In these (albeit rare) scenarios, they are a victim of their own strategy which champions quick attacking midfielders over traditional strikers. On the other hand, the strategy is partly borne out of the fact that they no longer have an amazing array of strikers with the advanced age of David Villa and Fernando Torres’ disappearing act. Of course, in normal circumstances, the opponent’s possession is so negligible that they can’t score either, and Spain eventually finds a breakthrough. This system seemed to be turned on its head last summer when Brazil smashed Spain 3-0 in the Confederations Cup Final. On that day Brazil had enough possession, pace, and invention to expose Spain’s overcommitted and sometimes disorganized defense. While Argentina’s squad is less solid defensively than Brazil, they have so many weapons up front that they should make Spain uncomfortable. Tired legs could also be a factor, as the core of Spain’s squad will have endured long and grueling seasons at club level.
Why I could be wrong: While age could possibly work against Spain, experience and chemistry will certainly favor them. The core of the team that has won the last World Cup and last two European Championships is still intact, with the likes of Iker Casillas, Sergio Ramos, Xabi Alonso (Real Madrid) and Gerard Pique, Sergio Busquets, Xavi Hernandez, and Andres Iniesta (Barcelona) still figuring to play central roles. Over the years other stars such as David Silva (Manchester City), Santi Cazorla (Arsenal), and Javi Martinez (Bayern Munich) have come along and fit in seamlessly, despite being rotated alongside other scores of uber-talented players. This is arguably the best and most consistent national team of all time, a veritable dynasty of international football, and back-to-back World Cups would certainly solidify this claim. Finally, Spain have integrated a distinctly non-Spanish striker into the setup with Diego Costa (Atletico Madrid). The recently naturalized Brazilian is a powerful, bruising contrast to the tiki-taka style that Spain loves to deploy, and offers a Plan B should the passing game stutter slightly. Few things would be worse for the Brazilian public than seeing one of their own that got away lift the trophy at their expense.
Will the rugged Diego Costa offer Spain a cutting edge up front?
* Betting odds from William Hill. These probabilities reflect a little bit of built-in profit for the bookies. As a rule of thumb here, subtract a further 3% from these chances.
quintessentialfootball 
Please may I challenge to add to my European Giants collection?
Yes. i admire your persistence
Erroneous.
You’ll buy me a pint anyway.
I’ll buy you a 33cl Sagres